Sure has been a quiet Severe Weather Season, hasn’t it? Depending on where you live, you are either begging for some severe weather or sick of it. Some good news to report…La Nina has diminished. What that means is pushes of frequent cold spells is going to begin to diminish which will cause for a lessen tornado and severe weather setups. Bad news comes with that…a hot and dry summer as the ridge is likely to build in the west causing for a hot and dry summer in the central United States. With Summer coming a month early, more of a summer pattern in severe weather is developing meaning it can be tricky for forecasters to forecast severe weather for your location. It may come unexpectedly! Be prepared.

This weekend’s setup is more of a spring setup, so; we will keep you ready! With a major trough coming into the United States, severe weather ahead of a cold front including the threat for tornadoes on Saturday is expected. Coming into Sunday, the threat for tornadoes is likely to weaken but large hail and strong damaging winds remain a factor.

If you haven’t heard, the next 2 weeks are going to be some of the hottest weather of the year. After this punch over the weekend, expect temperatures to soar even higher. Ahead of the cold front, southerly winds over 30mph are going to send 60-65 dew points streaming north to Minnesota. With temperatures in the 80′s and 90′s, it’s going to feel like Florida. Like Florida, many areas will see a thunderstorm risk. To enhance the risk, a trigger of a cold front is going to make the warm humid air rise in the afternoon and produce towering thunderstorms. What I am concerned about is the models take on the magnitude of the trough digging in from the west. If the trough is more major than what the models are indicating (like my findings), I am thinking a Mini tornado outbreak could occur in Central and Eastern Kansas along with Eastern Nebraska. Up to the north, heavy rain may limit instability and keep storms and severe weather to a more Isolated event.

All this heads eastward come Sunday as the cold front clashes with 65 degree dew points and upper 80 degree temperatures. Davenport, Chicago, Rockford, St. Louis, Madison are all under the threat for Large Hail and Damaging winds.  These storms could also go into the overnight hours as well. More details on Sunday’s severe weather situation will be given Friday evening. Stay Tuned.
Forecaster Randy Walker has kept everyone up to date on warm air sticking around and even getting hotter here in the next 2 weeks. Many locations could be looking at low to mid 90′s. Stay Tuned to Facebook for more updates on temperatures that could be hot hot hot!

-Matt Baranowski
5/17/12
7:00pm CDT

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After the Active Weather Pattern last week with the first July-level Dew points and Humidity for much of the United States this year, Severe Weather, Heavy Rains, and Unseasonable Temperatures are gone for most of the Midwest and Northeast. In it’s place A Large Canadian High Pressure is to Dominate as the Jet Stream builds in the West and Dives for the East throughout this week and into the Weekend. Then Big Changes loom by Next Weekend.

Sunday brought an end to Unseasonable Warmth, and Humidity as a Cold Front moved through Monday for the Midwest. With most cases following a Cold Front, Dryer and Cooler Air sweeps in from Canada with High Pressure, but with an Increasing Sun Angle the Cold shots are becoming less Severe and Widespread. Temperatures once in the 80s and 90s last Wednesday are now replaced with 60s and along the Lakes the 50s. Jacket Weather is a must. With the threat of Frost in Lower Michigan.

While we are Freezing Up here, the West and South are basking in what seems to be Summer with 80s. But with the Gulf Effectively Closed the Moisture to fuel any Storms should be few and far between, except right on the Coast with the Heating of the Day-type of T-storms, none of which are to be Severe. The West are enjoying the Warmth as well as a Dome of High Pressure becomes planted in the Four Corner States creating Lots of Sunshine and Dry air, only downside is the risk of Wild Fires in which could spark up with Little Notice from the Little Moisture available and Presence of Dry Vegetation.

The relative tranquility will not last forever so if you need to get stuff down around the house take advantage of the Sunny Skies and Pleasant Temperatures.

However Long-Range Guidance suggests that another Shift in the Jet Stream could allow this Ridge building over the West to grow and expand Eastward by Late Next Week, could be a Return to a Warmer and Stormier Pattern. Will keep an eye on this Potential Shift as we gather the new data in the coming Days.

By: Randy Walker

May 9, 2012

9:36 PM CDT

It sure has been a rather quiet last few days. Severe Weather has been rather confined to portions of Texas it is about to spread eastward where the developing low pressure in Canada is going to drop some much needed rainfall as well as some severe weather chances. While heavy rain is likely, stable conditions may inhibit severe weather to develop in such widespread circumstances. Still, large hail to 1.5 inches as well as Damaging winds to 60mph are going to be confined in sections of North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and Virginia.
With a intruding low pressure in Canada and expanding in size and intensity, a cold front is going to drape down from Canada to Florida. Winds are going to turn northeast on the gulf shores and bring some added rainfall and thunderstorm activity. With added daylight sunshine, warm temperatures, modest shear levels, their is going to be spotty severe weather activity in some locations while areas in the south could see an organized line of heavy thunderstorms move through the late evening hours. Up to the north in North Carolina and Virginia, hail the size of ping pong’s is the major threat. While tornado threat is quite low, If you were to see a tornado it would be located in the further north portion of this severe weather area.

The Northeast portions of the United States are going to see between .50 and 1 inch of rain from tomorrow on into early Thursday. Severe weather is not likely but thunderstorms could occur. In northern portions of Maine, cold air funnels could occur. Cold air funnels occur when cold air aloft mixes with the warmer air at the surface. This turning at height allows shower/storm activity to build and form funnels in the clouds. Some of these occur just over cloudy skies. Thankfully, these are naturally harmless.

Stay tuned to Storm Central for the latest as we will bring you another update tomorrow morning.
-Matt Baranowski
-9:30pm CDT
-5/8/12

In the latest of a whole mess of watches that have been issued this week, today is no exception as a Tornado Watch and 3 Severe Thunderstorm Watches are now in effect until Late Tonight.

Tornado Watch #251 is in effect until 11:00 PM CDT.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #252 is in effect until 1:00 AM CDT.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #250 is in effect until 10:00 PM CDT.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch $249 is in effect until 10:00 PM EDT.

The Main threats include Isolated Tornadoes in Tornado Watch #251, Large Hail up to 2 Inches for All Watches, Damaging Wind Gusts to 70 MPH for All Watches, and Dangerous Lightning and Torrential Downpours for All Watches.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the possibility of Additional Watches maybe issued.

-Randy-

As the Cap begins to break in the upper Midwest allowing Thunderstorms to fire, the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the area in Western Iowa, SE South Dakota, Eastern Nebraska and Southern Minnesota for a Moderate Risk of Severe Weather.

At 5:30 PM CDT, the SPC has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #225, in effect until 11 PM CDT.

At the current time, there are Thunderstorm and Tornado warnings over south Central Minnesota. Currently the storms are isolated in nature but are building in strength as the evening wears on.

I don’t expect this to diminish when the sun goes down this evening. I do expect this to strengthen into the overnight hours. After Midnight, the Tornado threat may diminish but the chances of Large Hail and Damaging Winds will be the primary threat.

Keep with Storm Central on Facebook and Twitter. We will keep you informed.

For those followers of Twitter, we have started to add the hashtag of each state that we are posting on (for Minnesota, #mnwx). this way, if you are monitoring the trends of these hashtags, then you will definitely get the information faster than normal.

~Jonny J~

We have several watches from the upper Midwest to the east coast.

I call this post “Tag Team Watches” because there are 2 of each Tornado and Severe thunderstorm. I will list them in the order that they were issued.

WW 217, this is a Severe Thunderstorm watch that covers Central Kentucky and extreme North Central Tennessee. This includes the Louisville area, as well as Frankfort and Bowling Green. This does NOT include Nashville. This will expire at 10 PM EDT

WW 218, this is a Tornado Watch that covers Southern portions of Indiana and Ohio, and Northern Kentucky. This includes, Indianapolis, Columbus, Cincinatti, Dayton, Louisville and Frankfort. This will expire at 10 PM EDT

WW 219 is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for southern Virginia and central North Carolina. This includes the Raleigh/Durham area as well as Winston-Salem and Greensboro. This will expire at 9 PM EDT

WW 220 is a Tornado Watch for Central to Southwest Minnesota including the cities of St. Cloud, Worthington, Luverne, Redwood Falls and Jackson, East Central and Southeast South Dakota, including Sioux Falls and Vermillion and extreme NW Iowa, including, Rock Rapids, Rock Valley and Spencer.  This will expire at 10 PM CDT

Last Night Matt posted a story on the severe threat for today. If you haven’t read the story you can read it here http://stormcentral1st.com/?p=5690#en

The Severe threat will continue east tomorrow, we will monitor this situation and will have our story on that later this evening.

We will be monitoring this situation and will bring you the latest as we get it. For the latest warnings you can view our watches/warnings and advisories tab or see us on Facebook or follow us on Twitter for the latest Severe Weather information.

~Jonny J~

After a surprising evening on Monday, once again we are speaking of Severe Weather. Monday evening, a surprise event that was not forecast by either us or the Storm Prediction Center. Rare large tornadoes struck Kansas and Oklahoma producing some major damage in Medford, Oklahoma and Deer Creek, Oklahoma. Tornado reports coming around the Greensburg, Kansas areas of a tornado earlier this evening in or near that town as they near closer to their 5 year Anniversary of the Ef5 tornado that demolished the town. Looking back on today’s event, dynamics were not being shown on the models nor where quite substantial. Temperatures in the 70′s, dew points near 60, cape values in the 3000kg, upper level shear much to the north and weak. What played a major role in this was the added effect of the lower level shear which made these storms rotate due to the Warm front and Dry line combination.

As we look into the next several days, there are multiple other days where severe weather is likely to be an issue in the United States. A summer like pattern is set to overtake the United States pushing the Pacific Jet Stream much to the north raising humidity levels and temperatures to much of the region. With this type of air mass, the next several days are not going to be called for organized severe weather until Friday as clusters of thunderstorms will inhibit much of the center of the county until Friday.

Tuesday itself, calls for an Enhanced risk for severe weather. Unlike today where the upper level forcing was to the north, today it will be right in our target area and will call for a much higher tornado risk. Lower level shear remains predominant as temperatures will rise into the 70′s and 80′s with dew points climbing. These storms are likely to get an early start and will last well into the nighttime hours. Latest model runs showing these storms beginning around the noon hour and moving eastward. Tornadoes, large hail up to 2 inches, and damaging winds up to 70mph in Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nebraska.

The storms currently in Oklahoma and Missouri are going to lift to the northeast still with an isolated severe weather threat into the morning hours. All areas in the gray in Southern IL, and Missouri could see some spotty hail and damaging winds in the early morning hours. As the warm front lifts northward into Chicago, there is a very slight risk that Chicago will see a thunderstorm with 30% coverage area but due to the loss of heating, storms should be fairly weak.

Stay with Storm Central as we will bring you the latest on the next several days including non stop postings on watches and warnings for your local area! Like us on Facebook for the latest! 

-Matt Baranowski
5/1/12
1:00am 

Very active week ahead with Severe Weather Possible throughout all of this week. As the Cool Polar Jetstream continues to jostle up and down across the country with it moving up North along the U.S./Canadian Border, this is to allow 65 to 70 degree dew points to flood into much of the Central and Eastern United States this combining with Temperatures in the 80s and 90s to fuel the Instability for Severe Weather anywhere from Texas into Michigan and points in between.

As the Hot Dome of Hot Air that was parked over much of the West throughout last week begins to re-energize over the Eastern Seaboard it will allow the Warm and Humid Gulf of Mexico Air to spill all the way into the Midwest and Great Lakes by Wednesday. Places such as Minneapolis and Chicago who had gone through many 80s in Mid-March haven’t seen anything close throughout all of April will finally get in on the action. In addition, as these Southerly winds blow in the Warmer temperatures, the Humidity will also be on the rise as 60 to 70 degree dew points coming straight from the Gulf will make it feel down right Muggy. So make sure you drink plenty of Water and do not over-exert yourselves as Heat Indices could be well into the 90s making it feel down right HOT.

Unfortunately, all this Warm weather comes with a price as the Close-by Upper-level Jet will have embedded Storm Systems riding along the periphery, enhancing the Low-level Shear and acting as the mechanism to lift all of the Warm and Unstable Air into Thunderstorms, which could become Strong to Severe. As mentioned before if you live from Texas into Michigan and everywhere in between you will have to deal with the threat of Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and perhaps Isolated Tornadoes but existing from Today into Friday.

These Threats could also run rampant throughout the night-time hours, so be prepared and what to do if Severe weather strikes if you are sleeping. Another aspect will be Extensive Lightning possibly Cloud to Ground which also could present a Danger. Remember to stay away from windows and don’t venture outside, if you are in your vehicle please stay inside until the Lightning subsides or until you feel it’s safe to venture outside and into a Sturdy Shelter.

Heavy Rain and Flooding will also become an issue as Thunderstorms will likely occur in the Same areas for a prolonged period of time leading to Extensive Rainfall in a Short amount of time, so if your encountered with a Flooded roadway and if you can’t see the bottom of the road do not cross it. Remember Turn Around and Don’t Drown. Flooding kills more people than Tornadoes, Hurricanes, and Lightning combined. Use common sense and if you feel that you can’t make it then don’t chance it.

Overall a Very Active Week ahead and as Severe Weather strikes  we will be on top of it providing you with the latest updates and guidance to help keep YOU the viewer aware of the situation and stay safe. Remember you can access our Live HD Radar stations all across the country and will be adding more items such as Live-time Model Guidance, as well as the Latest Watches and Warnings that will be posted on our fan page. Thanks for your time and we encourage all of you to stay with us at Storm Central throughout this week.

By: Randy Walker

April 30, 2012

11: A.M. CDT

Radar Image of Tornado near Tuscaloosa. The White in the center of the comma is a debris ball

One Year ago, we had a 5 day outbreak that spawned a total of 344 Tornadoes, and killed more than 300 people.

It all started on April 22, 2011; Severe Weather begins in the Midwest, and heads to the south and east.  Over the first 4 days, more than 100 confirmed tornadoes destroy cities in several states, killing hundreds.  It all comes to a head on April 27^th, 2011; when tornadoes are spawned in Alabama.  The most significant is the tornado that tore through Tuscaloosa, AL and made its way Northeast to Birmingham, AL, destroying more than 80 miles of real estate and killing hundreds.  Rated EF4 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, the tornado measured a mile wide, killed more than 60 people in Tuscaloosa alone and caused widespread damage from Tuscaloosa to Birmingham.

Another significant tornado was in Smithville, Mississippi. One of 67 Tornadoes in the state, this was an EF5 with winds of more than 200 mph that wiped out more than 2/3rds of the town. The Town Hall, Police Station, Post Office, the lone grocery store, 4 of 5 churches and more than 150 houses were destroyed or damaged in the small town of 900 residents.

Hackleburg, Alabama, named “Best Hometown” by CMT (Country Music Television) was hit in the midafternoon hours on April, 27^th, 2011. The small Northwest Alabama town saw the tornado come through and rip all but one of the towns 32 commercial buildings to pieces.  In the aftermath, 18 were dead and the small towns’ largest employer, VF Wrangler Jeans Company was completely gone.  Hackleburg was no stranger to tornadoes; in 1943, a tornado ripped through the town nearly destroying everything. They rebuilt from that and today, although some have moved away, Town officials continue working to rebuild again.

Today, several Hackleburg, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, AL, and Smithville, MS residents still live in FEMA trailers. VF Wrangler plans a ground breaking ceremony to rebuild on the original site in Hackleburg this next week.  Some areas in Tuscaloosa, AL that were originally residential have been cleaned up, and have been rezoned as Commercial, since the city needed more commercial  areas than residential.

All of the affected cities began the cleanup and rebuilding process the very next day after all of those that lost their lives were accounted for.  Today, the cleanup process continues, and will continue for several years to come.

These were just a few of the numerous cities on April 27^th, 2012 that were affected. There were more than 200 tornadoes in more than 15 states from Mississippi through Alabama and Georgia north to New York State. 4 of these tornadoes were rated EF5 including the Smithville, MS tornado.  There were 253 people killed in Alabama alone, 321 total deaths in the 5 day period of the Superoutbreak.

We hope to never see an outbreak like this ever again. However, we cannot predict the future and can just hope that this will never happen again.  We here at Storm Central send our prayers to those affected last year and are still reeling today from it. We hope that you all will get your lives back together and are able to move on and up soon.

~Jonny J~